Peter Schiff November 24, 2006
While Americans were busy digesting
Thanksgiving feasts, the rest of the world
vomited dollars. As a result of our massive trade deficits
, foreigners certainly have
belly full of dollars. The conduct of this week in the Forex markets
(NdT. No. 1) indicates that they may have finally eaten their
filling. Unfortunately
probably endure the bad taste, 'cause the rout of the dollar and'
only just begun. Since
'U.S. consumers flocked to stores this
' Friday 'black' (NdT. No. 2), few have heard about that and
'was in most' significant decrease in the value of their currency
. If something can 'and said that'
been blackened this Friday, 'and that' the U.S. dollar.
While the media remain focused to report
of dollars Americans are spending irresponsibly
, the real news is the loss of
value of those dollars that foreigners are foolishly saving
. The losses are particularly
more 'pronounced among foreign central banks
, on a more' substantial China, whose
foreign exchange reserves, in the vast majority
made U.S. dollars, recently passed
an amount equal to 1 trillion dollars. When
foreigners finally decide that they have had enough
, their reluctance to accumulate dollars will imply additional
'the perpetual fever
purchases of Americans will come'
finally to a screeching halt.
This week the U.S. dollar and '
been cut as a turkey for Thanksgiving.
against the Swiss franc, euro, British pound and Japanese yen, the dollar has lost
respectively 3%, 2.2%, 2% and 1.8% of its value
. To put in perspective those rebates,
in euro terms the decline of more than 60 points in the Dow Jones this week
translates into
equivalent of a decline of 320 points, when measured in euro
. In fact the beginning of the year and the Dow
'in a rise of only about 3.5% when measured in euro, compared to its
progress of 14.5% when assessed
in U.S. dollars, which are being depreciated.
From its peak in 2000, the value of the Dow, measured in €
, and 'falling by over 27%. In terms of gold,
the only legitimate world currency, the framework and '
even worse. When measured in gold, the Dow and 'falling
of more than 50% from its peak in 2000, and currently
down more than 7% so far this year. So '
does not deserve to quibble over the rise of fake
Wall Street!
At the risk of inappropriately using the term,
relative strength in the bond market and 'a riddle,
date the recent weakness of the dollar. From the point of view
of our creditors, the only thing worse than having
dollars 'own rights to future dollars, and that'
what are essentially bonds.
When foreigners begin to serve an additional 10% discount
annual dollar in assessing
bond yields in U.S. currency,
prices of the latter will quickly
headlong.
also never ceases to amaze me the way
U.S. investors can be so focused on
stock prices, yet remain oblivious to what those prices
actually indicate. The
Stock prices of course are
amounts of dollars. Therefore the actual values \u200b\u200bof market share in
effects depend on the purchasing power of the dollar
. Focusing on the first element, and in the meantime, ignore the second and
'
one of the major mistakes that most investors make.
Unfortunately, the prediction technique for the dollar,
and by extension that of the entire U.S. economy and financial markets
which it claims, is deteriorating rapidly
. The dollar index, now estimated to be 83.5
, broke their banks, despite some
key support levels, and the next support
che provera' sara' probabilmente
il suo record minimo di tutti i tempi, poco al di
sotto di 80. Se quel tentativo fallira', come con grande
probabilita' succedera', guardate a valori inferiori.
Una volta che il dollaro si avventurasse in territorio
sconosciuto, le vendite si intensificherebbero, con
l'indice del dollaro trattato al di sotto di 70 in un
battibaleno. La mia previsione finale per tale indice
e' 40, che letteralmente taglierebbe il valore del
dollaro a meta'. Ritengo che l'intero ribasso avverrebbe
in appena due anni. Ponendo di nuovo tale declino in
prospettiva, esso sarebbe l' equivalente di un ribasso
di oltre 6.600 punti del Dow. Naturalmente
this assessment assumes that the Fed finally becomes serious
and that Congress and the President will heed the
his sermon. If that 'does not happen, el' hyper-inflation
this had the effect, the 'dollar index would fall much more
' below, perhaps even fall below the value
10, before stopping the fall on solid ground
.
not make the mistake of believing that this is in some way
a problem for foreigners.
will be Americans who will experience losses in
a more 'painful,' cause what 'Porter' in
significant increases in both consumer prices that
in interest rates, and conduct 'downward
assets, especially for
properties' real estate for residential use.
In other words, that 'we own will be worth' much less
and that we need to buy will cost 'much more
'.
not wait for the facts happen to enter
action.
Protect your wealth and preserve your purchasing power
before it's too late.
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,
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http://www.europac.net/newsletter/newsletter.asp.
Peter Schiff CEO and head of global strategies
at Euro Pacific Capital, Inc.
November 24, 2006 posted by
http://iraqwar.mirror-world.ru/
original address: http:// www.safehaven.com/article-
6367.htm
translator's notes:
1) The Forex 'market international currencies.
2) The day after Thanksgiving, and
that 'the fourth Thursday' in November, is considered
from a theory with a certain distribution in the U.S.
first day of the year when the shops begin to make profits,
therefore be written with black ink (hence the name),
since the previous day of the year only served to reconcile the expenditure
recorded with red ink.
Translated by Francesco Caselli
