Clive Maund
November 26, 2006
The Dollar 'rushed with surprising vehemence
at the end of last week, driven by heavy
sales. That 'was an action marked "character
bear" (1), indicating that panic, and were likely to arise
a severe downward trend. E '
expected to break below the crucial support of the Index
80 per dollar, marking the transition from a clandestine
rid of assets to assets denominated in dollars
a stampede at full force, to "get
what you can in change them "before it's too late
.
The conditions that lead to an inevitable
panic sell-off of dollars are certainly not coming from one
tomorrow. They are the result of years of abuse,
particularly from the U.S. Federal Reserve (2),
who printed a real deluge of dollars, and
universal acceptance of this "funny money" has, at least until now
, allowed the U.S. to take advantage
economically the rest of the world, living beyond their means
. The exponential growth of dollars '
been and' still created electronically
touch of a button, SO 'pay whatever it' s never
a problem, whatever you want, simply print
the extra money to pay for it. Since 'the
foreigners have so far participated in this game,
they now are to a large extent, and to a certain point
understandably, considered stupid. However, and 'a dangerous mistake to underestimate the capacity
' intellectual
of other peoples. The Chinese, in particular, have a qualified and
ancient culture, and when the time comes to draw
strategic considerations, can excel in thought and
than virtually anyone. So '
what's going to happen? 'Cause they
accepted a mountain of paper and bonds
over many years, in exchange for real hard work and a large quantity
'of real tangible products? The Chinese and others have done this
'to ferry
through a transitional period, during which they built
their economies and infrastructure.
Their goal - to which they are quickly moving
- and 'get to the point where there is sufficient demand for domestic and regional
SO'
they have no further need to rely on orders from countries like the U.S.
. At this point - we can get more
'sooner rather than later - things will become very dangerous
to the U.S. dollar, and the situation '
actually much worse than many now believe,
' cause the Chinese and others are preparing to
CANCEL THEIR CAPITAL ASSET
denominated in dollars,
QUALIFIED AS INVESTMENT LOSS
- of course try to get what they can
, but on the other hand
will be ready to fall back on domestic demand and regional and
bear this eventuality with courage 'in this way
cutting the umbilical cord with the U.S., which
will be left in a mess, without anyone else
accept their money to laugh, a manufacturing base
emptied, astronomical debts and fiscal chaos, and a huge
army that the Americans can not afford
well to keep in operation. When the forces of globalization are let loose
, as indeed
were left, and that 's really a process
natural and inevitable, because' orders and work simply
are directed towards those who
offer the goods at the lowest 'low.
Europe and the United States are not competitive and will be relegated to the margins by
dynamic economies of China and Southeast Asia.
The Chinese and other U.S. trading partners are already
'coming out of dollars and entering the
Dinars (3), Euro, commodities and metals in general
precious, a step that accelerates the time.
As already 'know, this' was a primary factor in bringing
the commodity boom.
the recent U.S. attempt to maintain its domination
with brute force - a major reason why the 'Iraq and'
been invaded and 'that was planned to sell its oil
making it pay in euros - in this very
time, quite literally, runs into the sand, and now
and 'only a matter of when, not if, the helicopters will come
rooftop, to evacuate the remaining undefeated
U.S. military personnel, as
in the film "The Killing Fields "(4), although a final
extremely dangerous attack on Iran
still can not be excluded.
examines the fundamentals, we now look at what the charts show
about the dollar.
1 .- Graph No. 1
http://goldseek.com/news/CliveMaund/images/2006/11-26cm/1.gif
On the graph of one year for the Dollar Index we can see how
Thursday's fall 'last port'
the dollar downward ', interrupting a slight upward trend in
, which lasted from at least May. The index sank
'a lot of new Friday',
until you get to the area of \u200b\u200bsupport, corresponding to the minimum
May-June. This support can 'provide
temporary relief, but the severity' of the decline suggests that
will not last 'long to return, if the index
actual rest, which could not occur
. Note the downward trend
alignment of moving averages, with the 50 days that ended
the deviation with the 200 days in the last month,
creating the potential for a further severe decline.
2 .- Graph No. 2
http://goldseek.com/news/CliveMaund/images/2006/11-26cm/2.gif
six years on the chart we can see that the dollar has shown a potential
scheme Fall arrest
and bounce, such as "head and shoulders"
since the beginning of 2004, but also that the 'action of recent days
indicates that the model is aborted, and that a clear break of the levees under
minimum in May, we
next, will screen 'the index downward' toward the crucial
support long-term value near 80.
Which 'The origin of this strong support
long term? To locate it we see a graph representing
many years back.
3 .- Graph No. 3
http://goldseek.com/news/CliveMaund/images/2006/11-26cm/3.gif
The graph, which is the trend right from the beginning
1987, shows the origins of the strong support of long-term
at and above 80, because '
on this design can be appreciated that the index has
bounced repeatedly from this level.
it reached this level earlier in 1978 (not shown on the graph
), and again at the end of 1990, and bounce 'from
it in 1992 and again in 1995, and at the end of 2004. Clearly
and 'unlikely that the dollar will fall to this level and exceeds
, falling more' below,
without first pausing above it for a short time
or without taking a low rise.
Having said that, 'however, the key prediction for the dollar and
' extremely bad for the reasons stated above
, and so ', despite the strength of support for this
level, is not expected to resist the dollar's
above it for a long time. Over the last two months and
'became evident to all but those
that have begun, that the U.S. has lost the war in Iraq
, and which can now only take a
maneuver to save face or limit damage. This
'has further damaged the credibility' Use
worldwide. Deficits are a plague that
extends, and that continues to exert a downward influence
pessimismistica and holders of large quantities of dollar assets
, such as Chinese,
are scrambling to reduce their positions in
dollars, in a manner that avoids precipitating
the panic, which will be 'a real business, if you
succeed.
What will happen 'to the dollar, if it breaks' levees to
below the immensely important support of 80?
Perspective and 'a full-blown panic and a rout, and nobody knows what
low values \u200b\u200bat the end will land'.
Many U.S. readers who scan the future and intelligent
are already 'aware of the gravity' of the situation, and
they set out to bring at least a portion of their assets
or outside the country or at least out of the
denominated in U.S. dollars. That 's the way
undertaken, and it' what 's been pointed out at
http://www.clivemaund.com
Clive Maund
http://news.goldseek.com/CliveMaund / 1164561623.php
Translator's notes
1) a slang expression of the financial markets,
indicate the downward direction;
2) the U.S. central bank, it private even as the Bank of Italy
;
3) has the name for the currency of many nations, most of which
the Middle East and North Africa some
;
4) the meaning and '"extermination camps", and
military science are areas where is a concentrated
strong arms fire repeatedly, so '
also called "fields of fire."
translation of Francesco Caselli
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